Hillsboro, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

705
FXUS63 KFGF 251555
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1055 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 2 in 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Friday
  afternoon and evening. Primary impacts are hail up to ping
  pong ball sized, winds up to 70 mph, and isolated tornadoes.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday
  and again on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Fog and lingering showers have since diminished.

Looking ahead into this afternoon and evening, latest morning
guidance is favoring timeframe for strong to severe convection
to be in the overnight hours tonight into early Saturday.

The currently favored scenario is storms initially develop near
the MT/ND border mid to late afternoon, then work their way as
a quasi-linear complex east/northeast. This reaches eastern ND
after 10 pm and continuing east/northeast into northwest MN in
the early morning hours Saturday. Given the favored mode of
quasi-linear complex, gusty winds between 50-70 mph would be
main hazard, with still some attendant hail and line-embedded
mesovortices/weak tornadoes still possible.

Otherwise, the less favored (but still possible) scenarios
depict either no storms at all (inhibition too strong to
sustain convection into our area), or we have some initially
discrete storms in northeast ND late this afternoon (all hazards
possible) before moving into Canada, followed by a second round
overnight (the quasi-linear complex as described before).

UPDATE Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

A few sites still reporting patchy fog, but web cams show it is
pretty shallow and limited in area. Will continue to keep
mention of fog going a bit longer but at this point impacts seem
minimal. A few showers could hold together long enough to make
it into our far western counties and bring some brief downpours
and isolated lightning. But the main convective activity should
hold off until later this afternoon and into tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...Synopsis...

Near zonal flow continues over the Northern Plains with several
very weak shortwaves moving through. Surface high pressure over
our area will push east, and southerly wind should pick up as we
head towards morning. Several locations have reduced visibility
and a couple even went down to 1/4 mile for a brief period.
However, visibility obs have been bouncing all over the place
and coverage on web cams is very patchy. With winds slowly
picking up do not think we will get widespread dense fog this
morning, but will continue to monitor. One of the weak
shortwaves coming through today will move off into MN tonight,
but another shortwave embedded within rising heights arrives
Saturday and again Sunday. Another shortwave on Monday but with
some models showing the surface trough mostly to the southeast
by peak heating, much will depend on that day how previous days
play out. Flow starts to become more northwesterly for a brief
period Tuesday through Thursday, bringing a short break for
mid-week.

...Slight risk this afternoon and night...

Convection currently developing over central ND has not been
moving east very fast, and most of the guidance has it losing
steam by early morning. Thus, think there will be enough
clearing later today to destabilize nicely with CAPE values
showing a 60 to 90 percent probability of getting over 2000 J/kg
in eastern ND. Deep layer shear is around 25 to 30 kts, not
great but perhaps enough for severe. CAMs remain all over the
place for how they handle this afternoon and tonight, with some
developing discrete storms over the northern Red River Valley
this evening while others have nothing until convection comes in
late tonight from MT. HREF has 40 percent probability of strong
updraft helicity cores. Hodographs are decently curved so if
anything does develop all severe types are possible. Risk has
been upgraded to slight over portions of eastern ND with
marginal elsewhere.

...Weekend marginal risks...

Much of what happens over the weekend will depend on how this
afternoon and tonight plays out. The HRRR has some lingering
convection in southeastern ND and MN into tomorrow morning.
However, even with lingering convection the probabilities of
getting above 2000 J/kg in instability are 90 to 100 percent, so
still very unstable. The surface trough from south central ND to
the northern Red River Valley could provide a focus for storm
development, but CAMs continue to be all over the place.
Placement of the surface trough on Sunday will depend on how the
convection Saturday night develops. All in all, very unstable
but a lot of uncertainty as we head into the weekend, so
will message a marginal risk both days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Some patchy fog is reducing vis at KGFK and KTVF down to 1/4SM
currently, but web cams and obs show it is pretty shallow and
should burn off in the next hour or so. VFR conditions by mid to
late morning that should continue for the rest of the period.
Winds will pick up out of the south with gusts above 20 kts in
some locations this afternoon. Convection is possible later this
afternoon or perhaps even into tonight. Confidence in placement
and timing is low however. Will keep the evening activity
mention we already had going, but not sure enough to include
any storms for the overnight period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/JR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...JR